Drivers across the UK could soon feel fresh pain at the petrol pump, prompting renewed political pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to abandon planned fuel duty increases in her spring statement.

Oil prices spiked to 80 US dollars a barrel following US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, an escalation that reportedly resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Market analysts warn crude could climb beyond 100 dollars per barrel if instability deepens.

That surge is already fuelling concerns about rising forecourt prices and critics argue that layering tax increases on top could deliver a punishing double blow for households and businesses.

Last year, Reeves confirmed that the long-standing temporary fuel duty discount would end in September 2026. The plan includes:

  • A 1p per litre increase this year
  • Followed by 2p rises in each of the next two years

The Treasury has argued the move is necessary to stabilise public finances. A spokeswoman for the Treasury said: “We have extended the 5p fuel duty cut from this month to the end of August to support drivers across the country.”

But opponents say the timing could hardly be worse.

SNP economy spokesman Dave Doogan has urged the Chancellor to “see sense” and scrap the hike before motorists face what he describes as a “devastating double hit”.

He argues that with oil markets already volatile, an additional tax rise risks compounding cost-of-living pressures.

Doogan also linked the issue to wider criticism of the Labour government under Keir Starmer, claiming previous pledges — including a promised £300 cut to energy bills — have not materialised.

“Scrapping the fuel duty hike,” he said, “would be one U-turn families would actually welcome.”

Fuel duty is a politically sensitive lever. It directly affects:

  • Household transport costs
  • Business logistics and supply chains
  • Inflationary pressures across the economy

With geopolitical risk driving commodity markets, economists note that governments often face difficult trade-offs between fiscal responsibility and short-term consumer relief.

The issue is expected to feature prominently in the upcoming Spring Statement. The Treasury has been approached for comment but has yet to respond.

Iain Reid, head of editorial at Carwow, said: “What happens around the world has a big impact on what we pay at the pumps, because oil prices can jump when there’s political tension or supply problems.

“But there’s also a UK factor to keep in mind: fuel duty. It currently stands at just under 53p per litre, thanks to a temporary 5p cut that’s been in place since 2022.

"However, that discount is due to end in August, with duty tapering back up to just under 58p per litre by March next year.

"If global oil prices rise at the same time, drivers could be hit twice by higher wholesale costs and higher tax."